Do the People Matter?

My eyes as the weekend approaches are on Sunday’s elections in Hungary. The country seems poised for new leadership with the incumbent, Viktor Orban, trailing by 25 points. That’s not to say it will happen. Orban has been prime minister for the last 16 years in Hungary.

Hungary had been transitioning from being a Soviet bloc country to democracy, and before Orban the country joined both NATO and the European Union. The country had been in a period of economic volatility. Orban had been prime minister from 1998-2002 and then was seen as a center-right Pro-Europe politician. Now he’s seen as an autocrat, a darling of the American far right being touted by many, including frenemies Tucker Carlson and the president.

What I find interesting to know about how Orban rose to power is that the country, in this period of economic volatility, is that people of Hungary had grown disillusioned with politics and the political parties there. This was especially true because of the 2008 worldwide financial crisis, which led in part to Orban’s reelection in 2010.

Sunday voters could oust him.

Hungary is now regarded as the poorest and most corrupt member of the European Union. Young people in particular are disillusioned. Budapest, the country’s capital, has seen weekly protests over the conservative government’s ban on LGBTQIA+ events for the last year. This last weekend over 50,000 people protested demanding Orban’s resignation. The largest rally for the opposition party saw around 350,000 people attend.

To give you a sense of comparison, that’s about 1 protester for every 35 people in the country. The US’s No Kings rally would rank slightly smaller with about 1 protester for every 43 Americans.

This is not to say all is lost for Orban. According to Timothy Snyder, Orban has been busy. He’s gerrymandered districts in the country. He’s intimidated and suppressed journalists who have disagreed with them. He’s managed to not count mail-in votes of his opponents in the past. He’s bought votes. He’s telling the country if he loses, Ukraine will invade. (The two countries share a border of 85 miles.)

Many believe Orban laid the recent story of explosives being found by Serbians near a pipeline that supplied oil for Russia, and he suggested these were laid by Ukrainians. He’s also suggested that Ukrainians were the ones interfering with the US elections, repeating them while the US vice-president was there to rally on his behalf. Many also believe Orban is trying stir up anti-Semitism, with references to Zelenskyy who is Jewish.

This matters because the autocrats of the world are watching. Not only what the results will be, but what happens afterwards. Can this election be manipulated and stolen? How will it be disputed if Orban loses, which seems likely.

It also matters because it’s happening here.

The Associated Press brought to my attention this story from Louisiana.

I want you to know the story of Calvin Duncan. He was just elected when he won 68% of the vote last November to become the Orleans Parish clerk of criminal court after pledging to reform the justice system based on his own experience fighting to access court records while in maximum security prison.

This last Wednesday, Louisiana state Senate Republicans who control the legislature there voted to scrap his job. They are trying to get legislation through to scrap his job before he is sworn in on May 4^th.

Calvin Duncan, an African American man, was in prison for 30 years for murder. It took years to discover that police officers had lied in court during his trial. Duncan was exonerated. He’s even on a national list of those exonerated. Not that it was easy,

Louisiana still uses paper files which were apparently accidentally discarded and some of his papers had to be retrieved by wading through and finding them in a landfill. His exoneration led to the US Supreme Court in 2020 to end non-unanimous jury convictions, a Jim Crow holdover, in the 2 remaining states that allowed this—Louisiana and Oregon.

Many Louisiana legislatures disagreed with the exoneration of Calvin, who now is a lawyer.

Now Louisiana led by Republicans are working on passing legislation in the name of government efficiency. They cite Orleans Parish as a place where two jobs, the criminal clerk of the court and the civil clerk of the court, could be combined into one job citing that this is true in other parishes.

Reports from the state auditor say that eliminating the one position could save 27,000 dollars, though the auditor couldn’t say how much extra combining the positions would cost.

The bill’s Republican author, Sen. Jay Morris, who represents a district in north Louisiana, acknowledged that once Duncan’s elected position is eliminated, the civil clerk of court might struggle to handle the influx of cases. The solution, he says, is to “hire someone.”

Other New Orleans elected judicial officials whose jobs may be eliminated in the future would be allowed to serve out their terms, but not Duncan.

Morris told lawmakers that the goal is to pass the law in time to prevent Duncan from taking office before the start of his four-year term.

The bill, on track to be passed by the GOP-controlled House and approved by Landry, would immediately go into effect with the governor’s signature.

“I have never seen something so barbaric,” Sen. Royce Duplessis, a Democrat representing New Orleans said on the Senate floor. “I understand politics and I know you all are going to vote how you are going to vote. But just know, when we are all done here, history has a record.”

Duncan won his election with 68% of the vote in Orleans Parish. In addition to being a lawyer, Calvin has started a non-profit to help expand incarcerated people’s access to the court system. He said being elected was the culmination of his life’s work.

Louisiana consistently ranks at or near the top of the most corrupt states for corruption convictions per capita, with frequent bribery and misuse of public funds. According to the website HowStuffWorks, Louisiana is at the top. (Illinois is ranked second, California is ranked third.)

We often think elections matter. They do.

But what happens after the election may matter as much. And it’s likely they could matter more.

The election this weekend in Hungary will be historic. What happens in the aftermath may be more historic. What will Orban do to try and stay in power if he loses? Will we see an event similar to what happened here on January 6^th, 2021? Or will it be quieter like what the Louisiana legislators are doing in the name of efficiency…and then hire someone later more to their liking later to help with the backlog.

Many believe that people are looking to Orban as an exemplar of modern autocracy in the guise of a democracy. That may be true.

Rachel Maddow reminded us in her book Prequel of the longstanding political corruption in Louisiana in the 1930s in telling the story of Huey Long. And Isabel Wilkerson taught us in her book Caste that Nazi Germany based their authoritarian tactics on their envy of the United States.

I’m reminded of a “Doonesbury” cartoon from years ago where a deposed corrupt leader is being interviewed after fleeing his country and the leader said something to the effect of “Why I barely had time to fill my flight bag with gold bullion.” I’m hoping Orban is packing his flight bag. I suspect he’s going to try and overthrow the election first if he loses, but his bag is ready.

One of the reasons Orban’s pipeline claims don’t seem to be working is that people were watching and predicted he would do something like this. People have been paying attention.

Paying attention matters. Before, during, and after the election. The protests in Hungary and the US have been amazing. People voting in a democracy make a difference. When corruption is likely, we have to be paying attention too, especially after an election.

Democracy hangs in the balance if we don’t safeguard all three. Watch what happens Sunday in Hungary but also watch afterwards. The same for the next three weeks in Louisiana.

Voting is only part of a democracy. But someone who wins 68% of vote, shouldn’t lose his job before it starts. Calvin worked for years for exoneration and for the rights of others for justice. Will we?